|
Post by John on Aug 19, 2015 12:08:10 GMT -5
But how are they going to sell a product they don't have access to Jim. They still need a few billion to clear the site, sink two shafts, drive a transport tunnel to Teeside, build a process plant and purchase mining equipment etc etc.. Bit like putting the cart before the horse...LOL
The way things look, on the world financial scene, China has an unsteady economy, they have just devalued the Yuan to try to stop an economical "bubble" from bursting, many suggest China's economy is on the verge of total collapse, could probably be worse than the great depression.
Both China and Russia have signed an agreement to drop the use of the "international dollar" If more countries follow suit, the US is up the creek without a paddle, many investment brokers this side of the pond are advising to trade US dollars in for gold or silver coin before October.
The US stock exchanges are starting to record lows each week, a sign investors are dumping stock.
So where are Sirius going to get the money from??
I see hard times ahead, all the signs are there, we have a housing "bubble" much like the last one, Real Estate values have been dropping nation wide the last few months, just like they did in the last "bubble". There is no more money to bail banks out this time. Several banks have already gone "under" in the last few weeks.
I don't know how the UK economy is going, but it's pretty sick over here, severe drought in the west, avian flu, which has created a shortage of eggs and chicken meat, the drought has caused thousands of acres of food raising land in California to dry up.
The only bright side is, fuel prices are at their lowest they have been for a few years.
|
|
|
Post by John on Aug 20, 2015 5:58:06 GMT -5
This is an example of what I'm on about, I cannot see many investors pumping their life savings into a gamble like this in todays economic climate.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Wednesday after an earlier than expected release of the Federal Reserve's minutes, global growth concerns and a plunge in oil prices sent them for a wild ride. (Tweet This)
The Dow Jones industrial average opened Wednesday trading by shedding over 150 points before falling over 225 points in late-morning trading, while the S&P 500 fell over 1 percent and the Nasdaq Composite traded below the 5,000 mark.
Nevertheless, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq briefly turned positive while the S&P 500 pared most of its earlier losses after the Fed's minutes release before going back down.
|
|
|
Post by John on Aug 21, 2015 6:40:53 GMT -5
Again I'm pessimistic Sirius can raise the revenue to start this project, the Dow fell over 350 points yesterday, I think we are entering troubled times.
|
|
|
Post by John on Aug 25, 2015 6:05:35 GMT -5
NY stock exchange took a pummeling on Friday and again yesterday, seems the worlds stock exchanges are going down, mostly because of uncertainty surrounding Chinese economy and the world economy. I can't see Sirius getting this project off the ground, if ever, in the near future, we are in uncertain times. Who in their right minds would invest in a mining gamble of this magnitude in world with the economic problems we are seeing?? That's why the "big boys and girls" are shouting sell, sell, sell.. I'm not sure why the big players in Potash in the 70's pulled out, but I'd hazard a guess it was because of the risks, ICI knew it could weather out a few years of none profits, I don't think even they and their business partner realized it would be over ten years before they saw any profit. But both had deep pockets and could apply Boulby as a tax loss against annual profits. Sirius has all their eggs in one basket, very risky!! And now they have to try and save face, are they going to keep going and possibly face bankruptcy or put the project into mothballs and wait a few years? Only they know that answer.
|
|
|
Post by John on Oct 6, 2015 15:49:03 GMT -5
Anyone heard any new news on this venture lately??? Seems to have gone all quiet.
|
|
|
Post by tygwyn on Nov 12, 2015 12:27:32 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by John on Nov 12, 2015 13:56:47 GMT -5
I wonder what geological problems they have come up against?? I did a search, but no mention of what they are, water?? Unable to "hold the roof"?? I did pick up they had geologists involved and whatever the problem is, it affects almost the whole mineral reserves in the Boulby potash seam. I don't understand why they are laying men off though, why not devote all labour to the polyhalite seam workings??
|
|
|
Post by Wheldale on Nov 12, 2015 17:15:22 GMT -5
Maybe they are using geological reasons as an excuse to lay men off?
|
|
|
Post by tygwyn on Nov 13, 2015 10:45:33 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by John on Nov 13, 2015 13:13:30 GMT -5
From what I've been reading, world potash prices have taken a huge nosedive, Boulby is losing money hand over fist, they aren't making a profit anymore. There are several potash mines that have been shut down for the same reasons. I wonder how Yorkshire Potash are going to raise money with a world glut of potash at highly depressed prices? Like I said in earlier posts, now comes the hard part, raising capital.....
|
|
|
Post by Wheldale on Nov 13, 2015 13:42:09 GMT -5
I read that they lost 190 million quid last year and that the current area of pot ash will last until 2018. So it looks like they need to re-organise the operation.
|
|
|
Post by Wheldale on Nov 13, 2015 13:43:41 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by John on Nov 14, 2015 7:41:17 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by John on Mar 17, 2016 8:56:43 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Wheldale on Mar 17, 2016 11:48:19 GMT -5
I saw a shaft in South Africa which was 10m in diameter and had 6 skips and 4 cages in it. It moved 3 million tonnes of rock a year. I can't see how they could manage 10 million tonnes a year? Will they be installing skips in both shafts? Plus they want to double production to 20 million tonnes, will be interesting how the shafts handle this.
|
|
|
Post by John on Mar 17, 2016 13:44:54 GMT -5
I saw a shaft in South Africa which was 10m in diameter and had 6 skips and 4 cages in it. It moved 3 million tonnes of rock a year. I can't see how they could manage 10 million tonnes a year? Will they be installing skips in both shafts? Plus they want to double production to 20 million tonnes, will be interesting how the shafts handle this. Their plans only show one shaft equipped with two skips and the other solely as a service shaft, ie men and materials, imagine the cost of multi winders and skips in one shaft, it's alright with gold, which is thousands of bucks per ton more than potash...
I did some scribbling earlier today when I read the story, lets say they install 40 ton skips, which is highly unlikely due to winding engine costs and rope costs, but lets stay on that size, 2 minutes per wind, again unlikely, Boulby takes 2.5 minutes per wind and is shallower, then that works out at 30 winds per hour, or 1320 tons per hour, 20 hours a day winding, again unlikely, that's 26,400 tons a day, seven days a week, again hypothetical, times 50 weeks a year, then you're pushing 9.24 million tons a year. Reality would give you around 18 hours of winding per day, the rest would be maintenance, shaft inspections, rope inspections etc. I've never worked at a shaft mine that will give 20 hours of winding time on any day. Then seven days winding, possibility, Boulby was winding seven days a week, minus Saturday day shift which was a maintenance shift, then even 52 weeks a year is possible if they work none stop year around. We worked 52 weeks a year at Boulby, the only two days the whole mine and plant stopped was Christmas Day and Boxing Day. So flat out, 9.24 million tons would be pretty well near the maximum winding production, BUT, remember my rough calculations were based on 40 ton skips. Is there any mine/s around the world that uses anything bigger than 30 tons???
A high production Bord and Pillar mine will require many tons of supplies, roof bolts, w straps, mesh, diesel, lubricating oils spares, so the service shaft will be pretty busy most of the day.
Again, to me it's a pipe dream by people who appear to be oblivious of "real" mining. I also see Yorkshire Potash as taken a hit on the Stock Exchange, seems some of the investors are thinking the same as me.
I saw all this in the mid 1970's with the previous owners of the blocks of leases that Sirius now owns. I never saw the reasons they decided not to sink the mines they had planning permits for, a lot of us at Boulby were disappointed, because had they gone ahead with the two or three mines, our basic pay would have gone up.
I do remember how the media were reacting, a "Bonanza" jobs, prosperity and wealth, you'd have thought we had hit the Mother load instead of Potash...LOL
My thoughts are, IF!! it goes ahead, I don't think it will be on the "fairy tale" scale that Sirius have planned, they need to go slow and easy, plan well ahead for increases in production, but start off by getting the shafts sunk etc, install the infrastructure and start mining as soon as possible, start making money to pay back the investors. That will raise confidence to raise more capital to re invest in the mine. Looks like the management are trying to run before they can walk.
They will also be in the unknown, they are a few miles south of Boulby and much deeper, nobody knows what the mining conditions will be like, other than it's going to be very, very hot, say 45C plus? Will they have to drive all roads in salt, and drift down to the orebody?? How strong will the roof be?? They will have the same problems Boulby have had with the shafts, especially around the potash seam, caused crushing of the shafts, Boulby has had to have major shaft repairs carried out at enormous cost where it dissects the potash seam. Both pit bottoms at Boulby are in salt
|
|
|
Post by John on Mar 18, 2016 7:18:48 GMT -5
A bit of research yielded this info, 50 tonne skips made for a Canadian potash mine, but note how much that mine will be producing. I wonder how big the winders are that hoist those skips?? link50 tonne skips.
|
|
|
Post by John on Mar 18, 2016 8:05:43 GMT -5
Here's the biggest winding engine so far produced, 12Mw....16,000HP? Imagine paying the electric bill on that every month!!Biggest Winding Engine.
|
|
|
Post by Wheldale on Mar 18, 2016 8:25:44 GMT -5
A bit of research yielded this info, 50 tonne skips made for a Canadian potash mine, but note how much that mine will be producing. I wonder how big the winders are that hoist those skips?? link50 tonne skips. From memory aren't the new headgears supposed to be buried to avoid visual impact? Size won't be problem if so?
|
|
|
Post by John on Mar 18, 2016 8:37:24 GMT -5
A bit of research yielded this info, 50 tonne skips made for a Canadian potash mine, but note how much that mine will be producing. I wonder how big the winders are that hoist those skips?? link50 tonne skips. From memory aren't the new headgears supposed to be buried to avoid visual impact? Size won't be problem if so? Not physical size, power size, HP.
|
|
|
Post by kundyhole on Mar 18, 2016 8:52:19 GMT -5
John
They will also be in the unknown, they are a few miles south of Boulby and much deeper, nobody knows what the mining conditions will be like, other than it's going to be very, very hot, say 45C plus? Will they have to drive all roads in salt, and drift down to the orebody?? How strong will the roof be??
As you know I sarted in a potash mine last year so I will add a bit of my own experiences here ! I have been trained and operate a CM (Sandvik MB770)we are working at a depth of 750 meters ,tempreture is 46C , roof conditions are fairly good but all workings are roof bolted every meter using 1200 mm anchors if we have layer seperation then 3000 mm anchors are a must as in junctions and roadways over 7.5 meters wide . Our biggest enemy is Anhydrit in the roof or even worse total wash outs containing anhydrit totally unpredictable roof conditions plus you can change a set of picks twice a shift . I work developments in the west feld which as stated is not to deep , the poor sods that work in the ost feld are working in 54C plus , There is a plan to extract polyhalite but as in the UK it is far deeper than our normal salt seams so a lot hotter !! as you well know ventilation is not the best in pillar and stall working adding to the problems . I am just like you have come to the conclusion this is a pipe dream lots of pretty pictures but no real hard mining facts just a lot of maybee's and what if's add to that world potash price is in the cellar and not looking like rising anytime soon . It would be great if the project comes of but in my heart of hearts I doubt it .
Glück auf
Max
|
|
|
Post by John on Mar 18, 2016 9:17:50 GMT -5
John They will also be in the unknown, they are a few miles south of Boulby and much deeper, nobody knows what the mining conditions will be like, other than it's going to be very, very hot, say 45C plus? Will they have to drive all roads in salt, and drift down to the orebody?? How strong will the roof be??As you know I sarted in a potash mine last year so I will add a bit of my own experiences here ! I have been trained and operate a CM (Sandvik MB770)we are working at a depth of 750 meters ,tempreture is 46C , roof conditions are fairly good but all workings are roof bolted every meter using 1200 mm anchors if we have layer seperation then 3000 mm anchors are a must as in junctions and roadways over 7.5 meters wide . Our biggest enemy is Anhydrit in the roof or even worse total wash outs containing anhydrit totally unpredictable roof conditions plus you can change a set of picks twice a shift . I work developments in the west feld which as stated is not to deep , the poor sods that work in the ost feld are working in 54C plus , There is a plan to extract polyhalite but as in the UK it is far deeper than our normal salt seams so a lot hotter !! as you well know ventilation is not the best in pillar and stall working adding to the problems . I am just like you have come to the conclusion this is a pipe dream lots of pretty pictures but no real hard mining facts just a lot of maybee's and what if's add to that world potash price is in the cellar and not looking like rising anytime soon . It would be great if the project comes of but in my heart of hearts I doubt it . Glück auf Max Yes, whole different view when you've worked down a potash mine Max, I was lucky to have been involved in the early years at Boulby, so saw the early problems we encountered, like huge methane blow outs, gas blow outs. "Rotten marl" was Boulby's most dangerous roof problem, hence why they left a thick layer of potash in the roof. Convergence was another obstacle, the main substation location had to me moved, the roof had lowered from 15 feet to where I couldn't get my hand over the top of the switchgear. New subs were moved to the No2 fan chamber. During my first year, a 20 man limit was imposed when we "fired up" No1 fan, installed U/G, the ventilation was reversed and the surface fan shut down for good. Within days, No2 shaft lining cracked near the top when it started cooling down to surface air temperatures. It used to be the upcast shaft with vent tubes installed for ventilation. Once the fans were installed permently U/G, No1 shaft became the upcast shaft and No2 the downcast shaft.
|
|
|
Post by Minutor on Mar 18, 2016 9:20:23 GMT -5
A bit of research yielded this info, 50 tonne skips made for a Canadian potash mine, but note how much that mine will be producing. I wonder how big the winders are that hoist those skips?? link50 tonne skips. The Vanscoy Mine was gearing up to produce about 3 million tonnes of product (at 60% K2O) so around 7 or 8 million tonnes of ore?
|
|
|
Post by Minutor on Mar 18, 2016 9:29:29 GMT -5
Here's the biggest winding engine so far produced, 12Mw....16,000HP? Imagine paying the electric bill on that every month!!Biggest Winding Engine. BHP were planning 16Mw winders for their now suspended Jansen potash project, from memory they were looking at 8 million tonnes per year product , not sure of grade of ore but suggests mining 16 million tonnes at minimum
|
|
|
Post by John on Mar 18, 2016 10:03:00 GMT -5
A bit of research yielded this info, 50 tonne skips made for a Canadian potash mine, but note how much that mine will be producing. I wonder how big the winders are that hoist those skips?? link50 tonne skips. The Vanscoy Mine was gearing up to produce about 3 million tonnes of product (at 60% K2O) so around 7 or 8 million tonnes of ore? I doubt there would be much waste from potash ore, I know Boulby removed the salt and solids and pumped them out to sea, my guess would have been 20% or thereabouts. The salt they mine is almost pure, and would guess the Polyhydrite is almost pure to. By all accounts the polyhydrite can be used as is as crushed material and spread straight onto the ground, as needed by organic farmers.
|
|
|
Post by John on Mar 18, 2016 10:05:42 GMT -5
A bit of research yielded this info, 50 tonne skips made for a Canadian potash mine, but note how much that mine will be producing. I wonder how big the winders are that hoist those skips?? link50 tonne skips. The Vanscoy Mine was gearing up to produce about 3 million tonnes of product (at 60% K2O) so around 7 or 8 million tonnes of ore? When they say 60% K2O, would there also be other potash products too?? 40% seems like an awful lot of waste material??
|
|
|
Post by Minutor on Mar 18, 2016 10:18:07 GMT -5
The plans are ambitious that's for sure, but mind boggling shafts are being built. Oyu Tolgoi Shaft 2 for example will have a diameter of 10 metres and ore hoisting capacity of 29,000 tonnes per day from around 1200m using two 60 tonne skips when it comes online in 2019.
Shaft sinking has also come on a lot especially with the use of SBR's and the pioneering ground freezing used at Boulby is now much more advanced in technique and capability.
The polyhalite itself is more akin to anhydrite than sylvinite. The plastic deformation / flow and weak lithologies in the roof we used to struggle with (specifically rotten marl) are absent in the polyhalite.
They "should" be able to do it, and I say should in inverted commas because I have never been involved in a mine which has come straight out of the blocks and without unforseen problems.
Will they be able to finance it? Is there a market for such a large tonnage of SOP / SOPM given there is also a project in Mexico? There will be substitution as the product will be chlorine free but will it be enough?
I understand they are trying to raise the first tranche of $1.6 billion with a mixture of debt and equity and there is talk of a bond or suchlike for the second tranche of $1.9 billion. Big numbers!
|
|
|
Post by Minutor on Mar 18, 2016 10:25:08 GMT -5
The Vanscoy Mine was gearing up to produce about 3 million tonnes of product (at 60% K2O) so around 7 or 8 million tonnes of ore? I doubt there would be much waste from potash ore, I know Boulby removed the salt and solids and pumped them out to sea, my guess would have been 20% or thereabouts. The salt they mine is almost pure, and would guess the Polyhydrite is almost pure to. By all accounts the polyhydrite can be used as is as crushed material and spread straight onto the ground, as needed by organic farmers.Canadian ore is around 25% K2O before processing At Boulby it varied but it was a lot more than 20% waste, some panels I was involved with had 20% insolubles alone even before you considered the halite component of the sylvinte ore, the sylvite (KCl) component of the ore was typically 35% to 45%
|
|
|
Post by Minutor on Mar 18, 2016 10:27:38 GMT -5
The Vanscoy Mine was gearing up to produce about 3 million tonnes of product (at 60% K2O) so around 7 or 8 million tonnes of ore? When they say 60% K2O, would there also be other potash products too?? 40% seems like an awful lot of waste material??60% K2O is equivalent to 99% KCl I am not sure why the fertilizer industry report in K2O (as the product is KCl !) think it might be a historical thing.
|
|
|
Post by John on Mar 18, 2016 11:11:18 GMT -5
The plans are ambitious that's for sure, but mind boggling shafts are being built. Oyu Tolgoi Shaft 2 for example will have a diameter of 10 metres and ore hoisting capacity of 29,000 tonnes per day from around 1200m using two 60 tonne skips when it comes online in 2019. Shaft sinking has also come on a lot especially with the use of SBR's and the pioneering ground freezing used at Boulby is now much more advanced in technique and capability. The polyhalite itself is more akin to anhydrite than sylvinite. The plastic deformation / flow and weak lithologies in the roof we used to struggle with (specifically rotten marl) are absent in the polyhalite. They "should" be able to do it, and I say should in inverted commas because I have never been involved in a mine which has come straight out of the blocks and without unforseen problems. Will they be able to finance it? Is there a market for such a large tonnage of SOP / SOPM given there is also a project in Mexico? There will be substitution as the product will be chlorine free but will it be enough? I understand they are trying to raise the first tranche of $1.6 billion with a mixture of debt and equity and there is talk of a bond or suchlike for the second tranche of $1.9 billion. Big numbers! Ground freezing was used many years before Boulby shafts were sunk, I believe the Germans were the first to used it towards the end of the 19th century. The old NCB used it to sink many shafts, Cotgrave in the 1950's just one example. I recall when we were doing Mining Theory at Tech, we learned about sinking shafts through water, both cement grout under pressure, and freezing, which became the standard method. Boulby had one major problem, the Sherwood sandstone measures were in heavy brine, so probably required much lower temperatures than sinking through the Sherwood sandstone measures, (Bunter) in Nottinghamshire and Yorkshire.
|
|